> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.aloftly.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Probability to win

> Provider probability that a variation beats the control.

| Contract           | Value                                     |
| ------------------ | ----------------------------------------- |
| Metric key         | `intelligems.probability_to_beat_control` |
| Source             | Intelligems                               |
| Status             | active                                    |
| Type               | source                                    |
| Semantic version   | 1                                         |
| Catalog visibility | Picker-eligible                           |

## How it's calculated

```text theme={null}
value = variation.conversionRate.p2bb for each non-control variation in the current unfiltered result snapshot.
```

### Built from

* `POST analytics variation.conversionRate.p2bb`

## Known caveats

* Canonical scoped POST snapshot; provider Bayesian probability must never be summed.

## Where this appears

* A/B Test Results widget
* Experiment OS evidence

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="Grain and identity" icon="ruler">
    experiment\_snapshot; entity: variation; same-day fold: sum; additivity: non\_additive.

    **Join and identity keys**

    * sourceLineageId
    * experienceId
    * variationId
    * snapshotDate
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Filters and boundaries" icon="filter">
    * Organization, store, connection lineage, experiment, and result scope are server-derived.
    * Generic metric publication uses only the unfiltered scope; linked custom-event scopes remain in Experiment OS.
    * Current variation metrics exclude the control variation unless the field describes the experiment as a whole.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Timezone, currency, and freshness" icon="clock">
    **Timezone.** Result snapshots require a verified IANA Intelligems reporting timezone. Provider-local days are stored with their UTC bucket boundaries.

    **Currency.** Not applicable.

    **Freshness.** Hourly scheduled capture while the experiment is relevant.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Version history" icon="clock-rotate-left">
    | Date       | Change                                                               |
    | ---------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
    | 2026-08-03 | Bound the metric to the executable certified semantic release.       |
    | 2026-07-30 | Moved current-result metrics to the canonical scoped POST publisher. |
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>